In the beginning, reality TV shows like Survivor and Big Brother came across as a new type of game show. They offered only a little more drama, as viewers were able to observe the personalities of contestants more than on shows like Jeopardy or The Price is Right, but they were still ultimately about groups of ordinary people competing for money and prizes. With the advent of The Bachelor and its progeny, viewers began to focus less on the prize and became principally involved in the plotlines, if they can be called that. But regardless of whether reality TV is good TV or not, it is definitely good business. People simply enjoy watching other peoples' lives, and people also enjoy being on television enough to go on for free. Cutting both writers and actors out of the costs of a show has a remarkable bottom-line effect; ironically, viewers don't seem to miss the money spent on most sitcom and drama scripts. In any case, the latter works are better expressed in the form of motion pictures, which are still popular when aired on network television.
As a result, it appears that television could very well become a reality-driven medium. The only question is whether the majority of viewers will continue to enjoy watching the kinds of people that enjoy being on television for free. Certainly some concepts work and some do not (Law and Order is more entertaining than The People's Court). But for the next generation, currently growing up with reality TV as a part of their lives, their taste is probably a self-fulfilling prophecy.
The Truman Show, when it came out in 1998, seem like a gross exaggeration of anything that could be permitted in a civilized society. Now, it sounds like a plausible idea for next fall's lineup.